"Even without increases in higher education, the rapid growth of youth can undermine existing political coalitions, creating instability. Large youth cohorts are often drawn to new ideas and heterodox religions, challenging older forms of authority.xxv In addition, because most young people have fewer responsibilities for families and careers, they are relatively easily mobilized for social or political conflicts.xxvi Youth have played a prominent role in political violence throughout recorded history, and the existence of a “youth bulge” (an unusually high proportion of youths 15 to 24 relative to the total adult population) has historically been associated with times of political crisis. Most major revolutions—the English Revolution of the seventeenth century, the French revolution of the eighteenth century and most twentieth-century revolutions in developing countries—have occurred where exceptionally large youth bulges were present.xxvii Christian Mesquida and Neil Wiener have presented data showing that the severity of conflicts, as measured by the number of deaths in armed conflict, is much higher for countries that have a large youth bulge, even when controlling for the effects of income and inequality.xxviii Henrik Urdal has analyzed the effects of youth bulges on a wide variety of conflicts. Although he finds that youth bulges are not significantly associated with civil wars, they do appear to be associated with the onset of smaller violent conflicts, involving less than 1,000 deaths. Moreover, they seem to have an increasingly large effect as the youth bulge grows more extreme, and particularly in transitional regimes with neither a fully democratic nor fully autocratic character.xxix A number of researchers have also produced results showing that the size of population itself influences both the incidence of conflict, and the degree of state repression.xxx Their argument is that larger populations both require more intense state action to suppress dissent and offer more opportunities for opposition groups to recruit and mobilize supporters. There are also generally more opportunities for clashes between different regional or ethnic groups, other things being equal, in larger populations. Some research has also found that state repression is higher in more rapidly growing populations.xxxi However, other Population and Security scholars have found different results. The State Failure Task Force, for example, has so far found no significant effects for population size, population density, population growth or even youth bulges as a cause of violent conflicts."
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timeasmymeasure
no subject
Date: 2009-08-28 10:32 am (UTC)В конце цитируемого абзаца есть, впрочем, указание на некие обратные результаты (полученные в единичном исследовании).
"Even without increases in higher education, the rapid growth
of youth can undermine existing political coalitions, creating
instability. Large youth cohorts are often drawn to new ideas
and heterodox religions, challenging older forms of authority.xxv
In addition, because most young people have fewer
responsibilities for families and careers, they are relatively easily mobilized for social or political conflicts.xxvi
Youth have played a prominent role in political violence throughout recorded history, and the existence of a “youth bulge” (an unusually high proportion of youths 15 to 24 relative to the total adult population) has historically been associated with times of
political crisis. Most major revolutions—the English Revolution
of the seventeenth century, the French revolution of the
eighteenth century and most twentieth-century revolutions in
developing countries—have occurred where exceptionally large
youth bulges were present.xxvii
Christian Mesquida and Neil Wiener have presented data
showing that the severity of conflicts, as measured by the
number of deaths in armed conflict, is much higher for countries
that have a large youth bulge, even when controlling for the
effects of income and inequality.xxviii Henrik Urdal has analyzed
the effects of youth bulges on a wide variety of conflicts.
Although he finds that youth bulges are not significantly
associated with civil wars, they do appear to be associated with
the onset of smaller violent conflicts, involving less than 1,000
deaths. Moreover, they seem to have an increasingly large effect
as the youth bulge grows more extreme, and particularly in
transitional regimes with neither a fully democratic nor fully
autocratic character.xxix
A number of researchers have also produced results showing
that the size of population itself influences both the incidence of
conflict, and the degree of state repression.xxx Their argument is
that larger populations both require more intense state action to
suppress dissent and offer more opportunities for opposition
groups to recruit and mobilize supporters. There are also
generally more opportunities for clashes between different
regional or ethnic groups, other things being equal, in larger
populations. Some research has also found that state repression
is higher in more rapidly growing populations.xxxi However, other
Population and Security scholars have found different results. The State Failure Task Force, for example, has so far found no significant effects for population size, population density, population growth or even youth bulges as a cause of violent conflicts."